2024 Mexican general election

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2024 Mexican general election
2 June 2024
Presidential election
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Nominee Claudia Sheinbaum Xóchitl Gálvez Jorge Álvarez Máynez
Party MORENA PAN[a] MC
Alliance Sigamos Haciendo Historia Fuerza y Corazón por México
Presidential results by state
Incumbent President

Andrés Manuel López Obrador
MORENA (JHH)



Senate
← 2018
2030 →
All 128 seats in the Senate of the Republic
65 seats needed for a majority
Party Leader Current seats
MORENA Eduardo Ramírez Aguilar 57
PAN Julen Rementería 18
PRI Manuel Añorve Baños 13
MC Clemente Castañeda Hoeflich 12
PVEM Raúl Bolaños Cacho Cué 7
PT Geovanna Bañuelos de la Torre 6
PRD Miguel Ángel Mancera 3
Independent 9
Chamber of Deputies
← 2021
2027 →
All 500 seats in the Chamber of Deputies
251 seats needed for a majority
Party Leader Current seats
MORENA Ignacio Mier Velazco 202
PAN Jorge Romero Herrera 114
PRI Rubén Moreira Valdez 68
PVEM Carlos Alberto Puente Salas 39
PT Alberto Anaya 35
MC Jorge Álvarez Máynez 28
PRD Luis Espinoza Cházaro 14
Politics of Mexico
Federal government
Executive
Legislature
Judiciary
Elections
Political parties
Administrative divisions
Foreign relations
flag Mexico portal

General elections are scheduled to be held in Mexico on 2 June 2024.[3][4] Voters will elect a new president to serve a six-year term, all 500 members of the Chamber of Deputies and all 128 members of the Senate of the Republic. The members of the legislature elected on this date will be the first allowed to run for re-election in subsequent elections. These elections are taking place concurrently with the country's state elections.

Article 83 of the Mexican Constitution prohibits incumbent president Andrés Manuel López Obrador from pursuing re-election for another term (sexenio).[5] Claudia Sheinbaum was widely regarded by her party as the top contender to succeed López Obrador, ultimately securing the nomination of the ruling coalition, Sigamos Haciendo Historia. Xóchitl Gálvez emerged as the frontrunner of Fuerza y Corazón por México following a surge in popularity due to criticisms from López Obrador.[6][7] Citizen's Movement, the only national party without a coalition, nominated Jorge Álvarez Máynez. This will be the first general election in Mexico's history in which the main contenders for the country's presidency will be women.

Electoral system[edit]

The president is elected by plurality voting.[8]

The 500 members of the Chamber of Deputies are elected by two methods: 300 are elected in single-member constituencies by plurality voting, with the remaining 200 elected by proportional representation in five multi-member districts, with seats allocated using Hamilton's method. No party is allowed to hold more than 300 seats.[9][10]

The 128 members of the Senate are also elected by two methods, with 96 elected in 32 three-seat constituencies based on the states and the remaining 32 elected in a single nationwide constituency by proportional representation. In the three-seat constituencies, two seats are allocated to the party receiving the highest number of votes and one seat to the party receiving the second-highest number of votes.[11]

Presidential candidates[edit]

Sigamos Haciendo Historia[edit]

Sigamos Haciendo Historia ("Let's Keep Making History") is the left-wing coalition encompassing the National Regeneration Movement (MORENA), the Labor Party (PT) and the Ecologist Green Party of Mexico (PVEM). It is the successor to Juntos Hacemos Historia.

The coalition required that prospective candidates resign from their positions in the government to stand for the nomination.[12] Marcelo Ebrard, secretary of foreign affairs, was the first to register as a candidate, followed by Claudia Sheinbaum, Head of Government of Mexico City. Other candidates included Adán Augusto López,[13] Gerardo Fernández Noroña, Ricardo Monreal, and Manuel Velasco.

The coalition's internal process consisted of five opinion polls, with one being conducted by the National Polling Company. The remaining four polls were selected from a list comprising each candidate's two suggested polling companies.[14] The polls were conducted from 28 August to 4 September. On 6 September 2023, Sheinbaum was declared the winner, later being confirmed as the nominee.[15][16] Sheinbaum formally registered her candidacy at the Instituto Nacional Electoral (INE) on 18 February 2024.[17]

Candidate %
Claudia Sheinbaum 39.38
Marcelo Ebrard 25.80
Adán Augusto López Hernández 11.18
Gerardo Fernández Noroña 10.62
Manuel Velasco Coello 7.16
Ricardo Monreal 5.86

Nominee

Fuerza y Corazón por México[edit]

Fuerza y Corazón por México ("Strength and Heart for Mexico")[18] is the largest opposition coalition, a big tent composed of the National Action Party (PAN), the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) and the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD).

The coalition conducted an internal selection process to determine their presidential nominee. In the initial phase, candidates were required to secure 150,000 signatures, including a minimum of 1,000 signatures from 17 out of the 32 federal entities in Mexico. Four candidates successfully advanced through this stage: Xóchitl Gálvez, Beatriz Paredes, Santiago Creel, and Enrique de la Madrid.[19][20]

The following phases of the internal selection process involved polls. The first poll, held from 11 to 14 August, aimed to determine the top three candidates. Following this, a second poll was scheduled from 27 to 30 August, accounting for 50% of the points required for nomination. The remaining 50% would be determined through an online vote on 3 September.[21]

The first poll saw the elimination of Enrique de la Madrid. On 21 August, before the second poll, Santiago Creel withdrew and endorsed Xóchitl Gálvez. During the second poll, Gálvez secured a 15 point victory over Beatriz Paredes. On 31 August, the PRI endorsed Gálvez, effectively withdrawing Paredes, the party's candidate, from the race.[22] Later that day, the coalition cancelled the third poll and confirmed Gálvez as the presidential nominee.[23] Gálvez formally registered her candidacy at the INE on 20 February 2024.[24]

Candidate First poll Second poll
% %
Xóchitl Gálvez 38.3 57.58
Beatriz Paredes 26.0 42.42
Santiago Creel 20.1 Withdrawn
Enrique de la Madrid 15.6 Eliminated

Nominee

Citizens' Movement[edit]

On 29 August 2023, Dante Delgado, the party leader of Citizen's Movement, ruled out joining Fuerza y Corazón por México, instead claiming that the party would nominate its own candidate to contend in the presidential election.[25][26]

From 3 to 12 November, candidate registration for the party's presidential nomination was open. The first to register was Senator Indira Kempis Martínez, who had previously expressed interest in running for president.[27] Others who joined the race were Samuel García, Ana María Moreno Hernández, Lorena Romo Vite, Francisco Javier Rodriguez Espejel, Javier Gerardo Limones Cerniceros, Benjamín Antonio Russek de Garay, and Ernesto Miguel Sánchez Ruiz.[28][29][30] On 12 November, Marcelo Ebrard, who had failed to be selected as the candidate for Sigamos Haciendo Historia, announced he was not seeking the party's nomination, despite being courted by the party.[31]

On 17 November, the party disqualified seven candidates, leaving Samuel García, the governor of Nuevo León, as the sole contender.[32] However, on 2 December, García announced his withdrawal from the presidential race due to a political crisis in his state over the appointment of an interim governor to replace him.[33] On 4 December, the party's members convened to discuss a new course of action, ultimately deciding to select a presidential nominee by 20 January 2024.[34][35] The new candidates included party leader Dante Delgado and federal deputy Jorge Álvarez Máynez.

On 9 January 2024, Samuel García announced that the party had chosen Jorge Álvarez Máynez as the presidential nominee.[36] The next day, the party officially confirmed Álvarez as the nominee.[37] Álvarez formally registered his candidacy at the INE on 22 February 2024.[38]

Nominee

Independents[edit]

The registration deadline for individuals wishing to run for president as independent candidates (i.e. without the backing of a registered party) expired on 7 September 2023.[39]

To formalize their candidacies, independent presidential hopefuls have to collect the signatures of voters endorsing them in an amount equal to 1% of the country's entire electoral roll – a total of over 966,000[40] – distributed equally across at least 17 of the nation's states, within a period of 120 days.[41]

A total of 27 individuals informed the INE of their wish to run for the presidency as independent candidates before the deadline. By 7 September, six of them had been given permission to begin collecting signatures; the remaining 21 were given 48 hours to correct shortcomings in the documentation they had presented.[42] The six green-lighted prospective independent candidates were Rocío Gabriela González Castañeda, Ulises Ernesto Ruiz Ortiz, César Enrique Asiain del Castillo, Hugo Eric Flores Cervantes, María Ofelia Edgar Mares and José Eduardo Verástegui Córdoba.[42] A further three – Fernando Mauricio Jiménez Chávez, Manuel Antonio Romo Aguirre, and Ignacio Benavente Torres – were announced on 27 September.[43][44]

At the conclusion of the 120-day deadline, the INE announced that none of the prospective independent candidates had been successful in collecting the required number of signatures.[45][46]

Campaigns[edit]

Campaigning officially began on 1 March.[47]

Issues[edit]

Security[edit]

Polling indicates that crime and violence rank high on voters' concerns in the election.[48] During incumbent president Andrés Manual López Obrador's term, Mexico experienced one of its bloodiest periods. From 2018 to 2022, the number of intentional homicides surpassed 30,000, with the peak in 2020 at 36,773 homicides.[49][50] However, since 2020, homicide rates have decreased. In 2023, homicides fell below 30,000 for the first time since 2018, totaling 29,675.[51] Despite this decrease, the numbers remain higher than any recorded between 1990 and 2017.[50] López Obrador tackled this issue by endorsing the "hugs, not bullets" slogan and establishing the civilian-led National Guard. Some have raised the suspicions that López Obrador's administration is underreporting intentional homicides, with some cases possibly being reclassified as having undetermined intentions in order to bring the figure down.[52]

Xóchitl Gálvez emphasized that security would be a key issue in her administration. She voiced her opposition to López Obrador's "hugs, not bullets" approach and proposed various measures to strengthen state police forces across the country by raising their salaries to MXN $20,000 a month, constructing a university for aspiring police officers, and empowering state governments with increased economic resources and advanced technology to combat criminals.[53] Gálvez also suggested doubling the amount of prosecutors, judges, and the size of Mexico's National Guard;[54] redirecting the Secretariat of National Defense's (SEDENA) focus from public works back to national security; vowing to work closely with the United States in order to confront the drug cartels;[55] and to construct a new maximum security prison.[56]

Claudia Sheinbaum has expressed her commitment to replicating her success as Head of Government of Mexico City, where her policies brought down intentional homicides to their lowest level since 1989 in 2023.[57] She detailed that she would use a similar framework, emphasizing zero impunity by enhancing coordination between the National Guard, state police forces, and prosecutors, along with improving intelligence and investigative services. Additionally, she unveiled plans to bolster the National Guard's capabilities, enabling them to expand their roles in highway surveillance and serve as first responders. She also emphasized the role of the judicial branch in bringing criminals to justice, proposing to have judges elected by popular vote and creating a disciplinary court to sanction corrupt judges.[56][58]

Social programs[edit]

During his tenure, Andrés Manuel López Obrador implemented various social programs, with the largest being the Pension for the Well-being of Older People (Pensión para el Bienestar de las Personas Adultas Mayores), aimed at individuals aged 65 and above.[59][60] These programs are very popular among voters.[61]

Both Xóchitl Gálvez and Claudia Sheinbaum support the social programs established by the outgoing administration and have pledged not to abolish them. Gálvez proposed reducing the age eligibility for the Pension for the Well-being of Older People from 65 to 60.[62] Sheinbaum pledged to ensuring that any increases to the pensions from all social programs will always be above the inflation rate. Additionally, she proposed the implementation of a new social program targeting women aged 60 to 64, where they would receive half the amount provided by the Pension for the Well-being of Older People.[58]

Electoral reform[edit]

During his term, president Andrés Manuel López Obrador unsuccessfully attempted to pass electoral reforms multiple times. His latest proposal, unveiled on 5 February 2024 as one of twenty proposed constitutional reforms, aims to restructure the INE by reducing the number of counselers and requiring that electoral judges be elected by popular vote. Additionally, it would eliminate all seats allocated by proportional representation, reducing the Chamber of Deputies from 500 to 300 seats and the Mexican Senate from 128 to 64 seats.[63]

Members of Fuerza y Corazón por México have been critical of Lopez Obrador's efforts to reform the electoral system and have successfully blocked previous attempts in the legislature, deeming them undemocratic. On 18 February 2024, the coalition organized nationwide protests, dubbed as the "march for democracy," in multiple cities, with the largest one occurring at the Zócalo in Mexico City. Government figures estimate turnout at 90,000; however, organizers claim that about 700,000 attendees were at the protests.[64] Xóchitl Gálvez lauded the protests, asserting that Mexico's institutions would remain free from interference by authoritative figures.[65]

Sheinbaum suggested passing López Obrador's electoral reform if the outgoing administration failed to do so, supporting reducing the INE's costs and advocating for counselers and electoral judges to be elected via popular vote. Additionally, she proposed a constitutional amendment to prevent reelection for any popularly elected position. Furthermore, she announced her willingness to subject herself to a recall election, mirroring López Obrador in 2022.[66]

Debates[edit]

Prior to the campaigning period, the INE set the date and venue for the three presidential debates.[67] According to electoral law, presidential candidates are required to take part in a minimum of two debates.[68] Moderators are selected 30 days before the debate date. All debates will take place in Mexico City and will be broadcast on the INE's official YouTube channel, INETV.[69]

Debates for the 2024 Mexican presidential election
Date Time Venue Moderator(s) Participants
7 April 2024 8:00 p.m. CST Instituto Nacional Electoral Denise Maerker
Manuel López San Martín 		TBA
28 April 2024 8:00 p.m. CST Estudios Churubusco TBA TBA
19 May 2024 8:00 p.m. CST Centro Cultural Universitario Tlatelolco (UNAM) TBA TBA

First debate[edit]

The first debate is scheduled for 7 April 2024, to be held at the INE headquarters. This debate will emphasize societal issues, focusing on themes such as governmental transparency, corruption, discrimination, vulnerable groups, and violence against women.[69] Questions will be sourced from social media platforms, where citizens aged 13 and above can submit questions for the candidates. On 6 March, the INE unanimously selected Denise Maerker and Manuel López San Martín as moderators of the debate.[70]

Second debate[edit]

The second debate is set for 28 April 2024, to be held at Estudios Churubusco. Centered around the development of Mexico, this debate will address topics including economic growth, employment, inflation, infrastructure, poverty, climate change, and sustainable development. To ensure state inclusivity, the INE will tour all 32 federal entities to gather questions directly from citizens.[69]

Third debate[edit]

The third and final debate is scheduled for 19 May 2024, to be held at UNAM's Centro Cultural Universitario Tlatelolco. Focused on democracy and governance, this debate will address issues including security, organized crime, migration, foreign policy, democracy, and the separation of powers. Differing from the prior debates, this event will not include citizen participation; instead, candidates will be able to directly debate each other.[69]

Incidents[edit]

Political assassinations[edit]

Further information: List of politicians killed during Mexican elections § 2024 elections

Since January 2024, at least five aspiring candidates for political office have been killed, according to the watchdog group Civic Data.[71] On 10 February, a congressional candidate of MORENA in Ecatepec was shot dead in a street along with his brother after having allegedly received threats from a local union.[72]

Opinion polls[edit]

Polls have been carried out by various organizations and aggregated by the Americas Society – Council of the Americas, America Elige, Oraculus, and the College of Specialists in Public Opinion Polling and Surveys (CEDE).

Presidential election[edit]

Graphical summary

Polling aggregations[edit]

Fieldwork
date 		Polling
firm 		Lead
Sheinbaum
SHH 		Gálvez
FCM 		Álvarez
MC
25 March 2024 Oraculus 60% 34% 6% 26%
CEDE 61.1% 33.4% 5.5% 27.7%
Average 60.55% 33.7% 5.75% 26.85%

Polls[edit]

After primary elections per main coalitions (since 2 December)
Fieldwork
date 		Polling
firm 		Sample Others/
Undecided[b] 		Lead
Sheinbaum
SHH 		Gálvez
FCM 		Álvarez
MC
15-19 February 2024 De las Heras Demotecnia 1,400 67% 15% 2% 16% 52%
3-5 February 2024 LaEncuesta.mx[73] 1,800 50.8% 39.9% 4.2% 5.1% 10.9%
29 January 2024 Enkoll 1,500 54% 27% 3% 16% 27%
28-30 January 2024 Altica[74] 1,000 50% 35% 5% 9% 15%
12-15 January MEBA[75] 1,500 59.1% 23.1% 5% 10.3% 36%
13-14 January 2024 TResearch[76] 2,000 52% 27.1% 5% 15.3% 25.5%
13 January 2024 Rubrum[77] 1,200 53.5% 28.9% 4.5% 13.1% 24.1%
10-14 January 2024 De las Heras Demotecnia[78] 1,400 66% 14% 2% 18% 52%
9 January 2024 Jorge Álvarez Máynez is announced as the MC nominee. Eduardo Verastegui is disqualified after failing to gather enough signatures for an independent candidacy.
18 December 2023 C&E Mexico[79] 600 58% 33% 9% – 25%
10–15 December 2023 Altica[74] 1,000 48% 36% 6% 7% 14%
7–10 December 2023 Mitofsky[80] 1,600 50.2% 25.3% 6.3% 18.2% 24.9%
2–5 December 2023 De las Heras Demotecnia[81] 1,400 65% 13% 6% 16% 52%
5 December 2023 C&E Mexico [82] 600 55% 36% 7% 1% 19%
After primary elections per main coalitions (before 2 December)
Fieldwork
date 		Polling
firm 		Sample None/
Undecided 		Lead
Sheinbaum
SHH 		Gálvez
FCM 		García
MC 		Verástegui
Independent
2 December 2023 Samuel Garcia withdraws his candidacy.
22–28 November 2023 Reforma[83] 1,000 46% 25% 14% – 15% 21%
24–25 November 2023 El Financiero [84] 1,000 50% 31% 7% – 12% 19%
10–13 November 2023 De las Heras Demotecnia[85] 1,400 66% 14% 6% 2% 9% 52%
19–28 October 2023 El Financiero[86] 1,620 46% 28% 8% – 18% 18%
16 October 2023 MEBA[87] 1,500 60.8% 26.7% 9.7% 2.8% – 34.1%
8–12 October 2023 Polls MX[88] – 57% 33% 8% – – 24%
4 October 2023 Universal[89] 1,200 50% 20% 7% 4% – 30%
19–25 September 2023 Covarrubias y Asociados[90] 1,500 58% 17% 6% – 13% 41%
25 September 2023 De las Heras Demotecnia[91] 1,200 68% 14% 4% 2% 12% 82%
16–21 September 2023 GEA-ISA[92] 1,070 53% 34% 7% 2% 4% 19%
13 September 2023 Enkoll[93] 1,205 55% 22% 6% 0% 17% 33%
Prospective candidates
Pollster Date Sheinbaum
(Morena) 		Ebrard
(Morena) 		Colosio
(MC) 		Monreal
(MC) 		Anaya
(PAN) 		Creel
(PAN) 		Tellez
(PAN) 		del Mazo
(PRI) 		Ruiz Massieu
(PRI) 		de la Madrid
(PRI) 		Noroña
(PT) 		Others Lead
C&E June 2023 53.4% – – 5.7% – 34.1% – – – – – – 19.3%
Mexico Elige June 2023 35.9% – 8.4% – – 24.5% – – 7.9% – 17.3% 2.1% Velasco, 2.1% De Hoyos 11.4%
– 35.9% – – – – 19.5% – – 16.4% 22.1% 1.8% Velasco, 1.3% Mancera, 1.8% De Hoyos, 1.3% Delgado 16.4%
El Financiero February 2023 45% – 9% – 18% – – 14% – – – N/A 27%
El Financiero October 2022 44% – 9% – 18% – – 13% – – – N/A 26%
Reforma August 2022 34% – 28% – 16% – – 10% – – – N/A 6%
Reforma May 2022 33% – 26% – 13% – – 7% – – – N/A 7%
Reforma December 2021 31% – 27% – 16% – – 10% – – – N/A 11%
Alliances
Pollster Date Sample size Margin of error
SHH FCM MC Others/
Undecided 		Lead
C&E Mexico[79] 18 December 2023 600 4% 59% 34% 7% – 25%
CELAG 18 August 2023 2,000 2.19% 45.4% 18.2% 10.5% 25.9% 27.2%

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ Gálvez, while not officially affiliated with the PAN, secured the nomination with the party's support as an external candidate.[1] Additionally, according to the coalition agreement, the constituent parties of Fuerza y Corazón por México recognize the presidential nominee as part of the PAN.[2]
  2. ^ inc. Eduardo Verástegui

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External links[edit]

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